The Bellwether – 117

Releasing the 17th issue of The Bellwether, as published by FMIC's IAG-Research.

This is a fortnightly publication on market action and outlook.

The following are the highlights of the issue:

Corporate earnings will sustain

Oriental Peninsula Resources Group, Inc.’s earnings accelerate

Atlas Consolidated Mining and Development Corporation beats 2014 deadline for output ramp up

Corporate earnings will sustain

18% Growth in 2012

2012 corporate earnings were 18% above the previous year, at least for the 9mo2012 period. See table 1 on page 3. Will company earnings rose more this year and PSEi valuation (PEs) go lower, making the Philippines still a buy?

Oriental Peninsula Resources Group, Inc.’s earnings accelerate

Record shipments this year

We expect ORE to end the year with 87 shipments or 4.8m tons. This level is above the target 3m tons or 54 shipments for the year and a record high since ORE started commercial operations in 2011. We estimate 2012 earnings to reach Php962mn based on our estimated nickel ore selling price guidance of $11/ton for its entirely low-grade shipments for the year. We also assumed a $6/ton all-in cost assumption based on the 9mo2012 financial results. But we are inclined to discount our estimate by 20%.

Atlas Consolidated Mining and Development Corporation beats 2014 deadline for output ramp up

Higher tonnage earlier than schedule

Atlas hopes to hit its target 60k daily tonnage ahead of schedule from the current 40k tons. Company-set deadline for the higher tonnage was 2H2014, but Atlas expects it will achieve the higher daily throughput as early as 2Q2013.